’s backyard. “We have continuously talked to the Houthis. But alongside those discussions, we need pressure, because whenever someone lifts the pedal, that emboldens those within their leadership who don’t want to find a negotiated solution,” said a senior Saudi official. “The Houthis must have a role and a say in Yemen in the future, but as a minority they can’t expect to dictate to the majority of the population.” Western diplomats hope Saudi Arabia’s arch rival, Iran, could help convince the Houthis to halt the fighting at a time the Biden administration is seeking to negotiate with Tehran over the US rejoining the 2015 nuclear deal that Trump abandoned.

Martin Griffiths, the UN envoy for Yemen, visited Tehran for talks for the first time last month, and diplomats are banking on the fact that Iran’s links to the Houthis are less strategic than its support to proxies in Iraq, Lebanon and Syria. But analysts question the extent of Iran’s influence and whether the Houthis will seriously engage, given their strength on the ground as they battle a weak and fractious Yemeni government. “The problem is, the Houthis don’t really want to end the war, they don’t have to. They control 75 per cent of the Yemeni population and the other side [the Yemeni government] is totally fragmented,” Muslimi said. If the Marib offensive is successful, the rebels have “effectively” won the war for the north of Yemen, said Peter Salisbury, analyst at the International Crisis Group think-tank. Victory in Marib could also create more divisions in the Yemeni government, which would benefit the rebels if they advanced south. “The Houthis see this as a war with Saudi Arabia.

They want it to be ended by a deal with the Saudis that makes it clear they represent the state,” Salisbury said. “It’s very hard to see how you find a middle ground everyone can accept given the power dynamic on the ground.” An official in the Yemeni government said it would be a “disaster” if the Houthis seized Marib. “If that happens then no one will talk any more about peace,” he added.